[Ogre] Run For The Border

[Mark and Rachael]

Hi all. I'm new to the mailing list, and this is my
first posting.

I recently got around to picking up the Ogre Scenarios
book. Is it just me, or is the Run For The Border
scenario broken as written? I'd be interested in your
feedback. Unless I'm missing some key point, it seems
like the Ogre player should get a clear victory 9 out
of 10 times. Consider:

If the Ogre simply blazes straight at the border, 3
hexes every turn, and doesn't slow down to fire at his
pursuers, the following will take place-

Of the pursuers, only the superheavy and the 4 missile
tanks will ever get in a shot at the Ogre... and the
missile tanks only on their very first turn! So that's
6 attacks at 3, all at the treads, which means (on
average) 2 of 6 will hit (roll 5 or 6) for a total of
6 tread damage. And if the GEV escort can gang up on
the superheavy and take it out after it's first turn,
which isn't too hard (they have enough time to get
there if they start as far forward as allowed), then
the Ogre will take no more damage EVER, let alone have
it's movement reduced! It starts far enough forward to
outrun every other pursuer except the pesky
superheavy. 

Note that the Ogre player can even sacrifice 3 of his
escort GEVs to suicide the superheavy and fail to take
out a single other pursuer and still achieve clear
victory.

It seems like it all comes down to a single die
roll... the GEVs vs. superheavy. What am I missing?

Thanks for any input.
~Mark M.