[gurps] Failing autopilots and RVO

[Knapp]

On Mon, Mar 2, 2009 at 7:55 PM, Zan Lynx <zlynx at acm.org> wrote:
> Knapp wrote:
>>>
>>> One other thing about computer software that might come into play is that
>>> it
>>> is predictable.
>>
>>
>>
>> This shows up in real life, in the tactics game players
>>>
>>> adopt to defeat boss enemies in MMOs, for example.  It shows up in
>>> science
>>> fiction often as well.  An example of that is in Michael Z. Williamson's
>>
>> The problem with that is it would not be true, if the program were to
>> use the Monti Carlo to solve the problems. Remember that this gets and
>> answer by trying lots of random answers and picking the best bet.
>> These random answers are not the same every time. I would also think
>> that any combat programmer would know not to let the computer be
>> predictable but who knows. On the other hand random is very important
>> in tactics of any fighter so I can't see them overlooking that fact.
>> Makes good fiction but reality?
>>
>>> --
>>> Zan Lynx
>>> zlynx at acm.org
>>
>
>
> For the computer, for any decision there is going to be one option that is
> "best".  Choosing the non-best option may confuse the opponent, but it still
> isn't best.  Unless the opponent is expecting the "best" tactic  of course.
>
> Sorry, but as a programmer on a government contract are you going to write
> software that uses random choices to obtain 80% effectiveness in the
> government requirements testing or are you going to write software that
> achieves 95% using well chosen almost-always-best tactics?
>
> --
> Zan Lynx

If you can get 95% without the random factor, then go for it. I mean
if you are write more that the other guy then you win unless the fates
are against you. The problem is that in areas where people use things
like the Monti Carlo you CAN'T get it right without the random
answers. There are 1,000,000,000,000 or more of answers in many cases.
The random help to pick one that is good because you can not test all
the answers. This will not give you the best answer but it will give
you a good answer but it will never give you the same answer. The more
random answers you can test the better the answer will be but there
are limits of time, information and computer power. You pick an answer
that is better than all the others that you have tried but that does
not make it the best or the only answer and it will be different each
time you run it unless your random function sucks.

-- 
Douglas E Knapp

Why do we live?